Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Scoring my own predictions

Have you read Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise? You should. It will make you appreciate the  National Weather Service and shake your head again at the collateralized debt obligation/mortgage backed securities meltdown of 2008.

I always include a "Hindsight" section in my annual forecast, looking back at how I did with the previous year's predictions. Blueprint 2013 is now in final production stage (release on January 3 7, 2013) and so I've been keeping score for myself on how I did in 2012. You can see that scorecard in the Blueprint 2013.

Then a colleague reminded me of my decade-length list, Ten for the Next Ten, that I posted in 2010 with an eye on 2020. I thought I'd check in on that longer set of forecasts.

Here's the abbreviated list, with [my quick assessment on progress to-date in brackets]:
  1. The rules will change. [Yes, see fiscal cliff discussions and changes to charitable tax deduction]
  2. More spend down foundations [I don't know - do we have baseline data, anyone?]
  3. Gaming and game pedagogy will be built in to problem solving [Yep]
  4. Disaster relief giving will be more structured and planned [Maybe getting there.]
  5. Impact investing will surpass philanthropy [not yet, but time frame is till 2020]
  6. Institutional philanthropy will be more collaborative [Really? What was I thinking?]
  7. Data analysis and visualization will be key skills for philanthropists [Key skills they recognize that they need, not that they already have on hand. Search this  blog for datavis to find examples.
  8. Foundations and nonprofits will still be here [Phew. Although Johns Hopkins' findings of declining employment in nonprofit sector human services, education and healthcare jobs mean I'm on to something over the long run]
  9. Mobile phones will replace credit card donations.  [Coming soon]
  10. Scale will have a networked meaning. [Hmmm. The jury is out on this one]
I had some bonus tracks on the original list, [again, current comments in brackets]
  1. “Impact economy” will replace “social sector” as the term of art. [Nope]
  2. Foundation leadership and boards will not reflect the racial, ethnic, or gender makeup of the nation. [Yes, still a safe bet and a sad truth]
  3. China and India will be atop global philanthropy leader boards. [Getting there]
  4. There will be a multinational oversight organization for global philanthropy or social investing. [Eight years to go]
Seems like I should have some more things to add to this list or refine it. Maybe I'll do that in the new year. What would you add or remove from this list? What score do you give it?

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