I always include a "Hindsight" section in my annual forecast, looking back at how I did with the previous year's predictions. Blueprint 2013 is now in final production stage (release on January
Then a colleague reminded me of my decade-length list, Ten for the Next Ten, that I posted in 2010 with an eye on 2020. I thought I'd check in on that longer set of forecasts.
Here's the abbreviated list, with [my quick assessment on progress to-date in brackets]:
- The rules will change. [Yes, see fiscal cliff discussions and changes to charitable tax deduction]
- More spend down foundations [I don't know - do we have baseline data, anyone?]
- Gaming and game pedagogy will be built in to problem solving [Yep]
- Disaster relief giving will be more structured and planned [Maybe getting there.]
- Impact investing will surpass philanthropy [not yet, but time frame is till 2020]
- Institutional philanthropy will be more collaborative [Really? What was I thinking?]
- Data analysis and visualization will be key skills for philanthropists [Key skills they recognize that they need, not that they already have on hand. Search this blog for datavis to find examples.
- Foundations and nonprofits will still be here [Phew. Although Johns Hopkins' findings of declining employment in nonprofit sector human services, education and healthcare jobs mean I'm on to something over the long run]
- Mobile phones will replace credit card donations. [Coming soon]
- Scale will have a networked meaning. [Hmmm. The jury is out on this one]
- “Impact economy” will replace “social sector” as the term of art. [Nope]
- Foundation leadership and boards will not reflect the racial, ethnic, or gender makeup of the nation. [Yes, still a safe bet and a sad truth]
- China and India will be atop global philanthropy leader boards. [Getting there]
- There will be a multinational oversight organization for global philanthropy or social investing. [Eight years to go]
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