Given the variation of these expert economic models, let's all play experts for a second.
Here's the question, "What would affect donors' behavior more, changes in the tax deductions associated with their their giving or rules requiring greater transparency about their giving?"
Let me know what you think in comments or on twitter (@p2173). Unlike 6th grade math you can just share your opinion, you don't need to show your work, although I also welcome you to explain your opinion.
(The savvier of you will, of course, realize that I'm asking because I think changes of either kind might lie in the year ahead....)