Charities Fear Cuts Will Wound the NeedyThis is not a methodologically sound attempt at content or media analysis. But it did make me wonder about something that ties into the "debate" about wither philanthropic giving this year. Some data show that recessions don't affect giving all that much and pundits are expecting giving to remain flat or even go up in 2008 (as compared to 2007).
In Downturn, Charities Face Needs of Their Own
Nonprofits Say Needs Are Great, Cash Is Short
Charities Struggling With Their Own Needs
Billionaire Offers Arts Bailout in Los Angele
I've been the harbinger of doom, because that possibility just doesn't make sense to me - as I've written here, here, here, and here. So it occurred to e to ask about the data sources as a whole - and here's what I'm noticing..
- Most of the polls or stories that point to giving staying flat or going up a little bit seem to be polls of donors.
- Most of those who are saying giving will drop (or has dropped) are looking at polls of or aggregated stories about nonprofits.
- Might we have a survey respondent bias to weed out here.....? Can we interest Nate Silver in regressing all the poll data....